Another way of analyzing the Shemitah Effect on the Dow Jones Average is to look at the 20 largest point drops in the stock market during single day crashes. This is due to the fact that from the beginning of the planting season the Shemitah has a negative affect on the economy, because all those people and businesses that make a living through agriculture would experience a downturn throughout that year. The Shemitah is thus a radical concept that has no parallel among the nations and economic systems of the world. There is always some rational, well-grounded economic reason why the current boom whether in South Sea stocks, internet companies or residential real estate will go on for ever and ever. As Israel implodes, does nobody in Netanyahus Likud have the guts to defy him? You are to do the same with your vineyard and your olive grove.. The Shmita (judgment) and America converged on September 11, 2001 when the Thus, there appears to be a Shemitah Effect that manifests itself as negative economic pressure upon the economy of the United States, and since the U.S. economy typically reflects what is happening in the world, this effect likely occurs worldwide as well. This effect was felt early in the Shemitah year and continued until the first planting season of the next seven-year cycle. JUST OPINION! Of course, the attack by Babylon upon Israel and the Jews captivity occurred for many more reasons than just breaking the Shemitah, including completely turning away from God into the darkest of evil and sin. It would also prevent lower income families from sliding down further into poverty, because the seventh year would provide free food and an elimination of any debt they may have incurred. Therefore, Moses told the nation of Israel that six days out of every week they should labor and work, but on the seventh day they should rest from all their labors and do no work: For six days work may be done, but on the seventh day there is a sabbath of complete rest, a holy convocation. Year of the Shmita September 24th 2022! How about a rest that lasts 12 months?. So, at the climax of the 2001 Shmita came two falls; a colossal collapse in Wall Street What this meant is that any person or family that sold their property to another Hebrew would get their property back at the end of every 7 Shemitahs. This happened to be as well a Shemitah year. Welcome to our community. The cycle of seven This was before the war in Ukraine and the exponential price growth of several crucial commodities, which are all said to be consequences of the war. These data appear to indicate that a Shemitah Effect may indeed be real and affecting the worlds economy even when the Mosaic Law originally only applied to Israel. They have not been independently audited or verified.Investments in securities involve risk and the loss of investment principal is possible. The opinions, facts and any media content in them are presented solely by the authors, and neither The Times of Israel nor its partners assume any responsibility for them. Not knowing what it was, I asked her. Is there a principle that has been functioning for decades and perhaps even for centuries, which affects the global political and economic systems and causes periodic recessions or depressions? According to the book of Leviticus, every set of seven Shemitahs was to be followed by a Year of Jubilee in which another major type of release was to take place. We are about to experience two events described in the Bible, called the end of the sabbath year and the yubilee year. There are other cycles as well, like the moon phases and sunspot cycles and bitcoin does seem to have a clear correlation in terms of price. The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita yearhistorically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. The special Sabbath that occurs once every seven years became known as the Shemitah. And more than that, did the Lord actually build a fundamental property into the functioning of nations and societies that produces a type of Shemitah Effect even if the nations dont follow or even know about the Shemitah or the Law of Moses? A decade ago, Mike Maloney made an effort to explain it all through a series called Hidden Secrets of Money. The Shemitah years of 1972-1973, 1979-1980, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, and 2007-2008 all correspond to concurrent or subsequent increases in the unemployment rate. Tusen takk til dere som hjalp oss!Dere kom som sendt fra himmelen! This year is a different story. The historical performance results for indices and index funds, used as proxies for indices, are provided exclusively for comparison purposes. Speak to the sons of Israel and say to them, When you come into the land which I shall give you, then the land shall have a sabbath to the Lord. Personal debts are forgiven, and commitments to faith are renewed. Markets therefore adjust swiftly and efficiently when assets are mis-priced and so it is impossible, for mismatches between prices and real values to persist. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. You may wonder how Israel could ever eliminate a year of planting and not run out of food, because the effect of the Shemitah would actually result in at least a 1.5-year interim between harvests. Dividends and income are included in the index returns. All during this one Shmita year. tower; "Come, let us build ourselves a city, and a tower whose top is in the heavens; let us make a the realm of finances, economies and empires: The next Shemitah year will start in September of 2021. This was true regardless of how much debt was still owed or how many payments on the loan had or had not been made. In his spare time he is a writer,translator, urban tour guide and teaches Jewish texts and sources. The ecclesiastical calendar is used to keep track of special feast days and high holidays. In this way, all property bought and sold between Hebrews was really only rented for a time and not permanently transferred or lost. Many would say that this is because it cant. The easiest thing is to follow the crowd or ask a financial advisor. The Shemitah cycle became popular by the book The Mystery of The Shemitah by Rabbi Jonathan Cahn. The Lord promised that he would bless Israel if they followed his ways, and the weekly Sabbath and the seventh-year Shemitah would pose no problems, but be a great blessing. February 27, 2023 12:09 pm EST. A mini-recession built into their economic system every seven years which assured that there would be no financial bubbles or the subsequent severe crashes, which often resulted from them. 2007-2008 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Yes, the bearish trifecta.If that sounds like a reprint of one of our Monday MTI memos, bear with us (pun intended). This part of the Shemitah thus provided a cooling off period for Israels economy. From Shuls to JCCs, Federations to urban farms, I met a wide range of knowledge levels and often had to begin by explaining the abc of shmita, the biblical seven-year agriculture cycle. Lets have a look a couple of examples of stock markets crashes which fell all in Shemitah years. In this article I want to have a look at the Shemitah Cycle also known as the 7-year cycle. Think about this. In this sense, we might expect to see periods of severe economic decline outside of a Shemitah period as the evil built into the economies of the world periodically breaks the system and creates downturns. Establishment of What happened. No worries, just going about their lives as before. There are many sources of economic data that can be found to map out the recessions or depressions in the worlds economy, including information related to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as the booms and busts in the stock markets or bond markets, the increases and decreases in currency values, or the rise and fall of unemployment. Please try again or choose an option below. The S\u0026P 500 is a trademarked term of the McGraw Hill Company, and index data was compiled from sources we believe to be reliable. One sharp observer who realized that this was not how things worked in the real world was the British economist John Maynard Keynes. he does point out one remarkable fact: the final day of both of the last two shmita years saw two of the three largest falls in history (measured in points not in per cent) of the US stock market. Compared to non-Shmita years, that is significantly different (p < 0.05) than the 24% probability of negative years for the years leading up to the sabbatical year. One of the main purposes of the Sabbaths and Shemitahs was to put a damper on the lust for more money and material things, and through this process help return the hearts of the people back to a reliance on God, who is after all the only true source of everything that we have in life. This time span is due to the fact that the final harvest of the seven-year cycle would occur by spring and early summer of the sixth year and the next harvest wouldnt occur until at least half-way through the eighth year (or year one of the next Shemitah cycle). In the following table, the 20 largest negative percent changes are shown for the Dow Jones Average since the beginning of the last century, and they are either positively or negatively correlated to a Shemitah event. And the Torahs idea of shmita can teach us plenty about financial bubbles and economic cycles, whatever you think of Cahans take on the freaky coincidences. The Shemitah thus had one aspect related to a Sabbatical rest and another aspect for the remission of all debts within Israel. OK, the electricity bill is a pain in the ass, so a few posts on social media about that, many join a Facebook-group demanding a maximum price for petrol or some other commodity. But I do believe in a God who communicates with us through the Torah. Leaving aside Cahans highly dubious theology, (since when did George Washington or the other Founding Fathers have a direct line to the divine?) and yearsthe cycle of seven weeks (7x7) points to the 50th day - Pentecost. One world order? Time Cycles Say Therell Be Better Times Than 2022, A Religious Calendar Calls For A 2022 (Market) Sabbatical, Soft Landing Or Recession? Thanks for sharing your thoughts. The story behind the Shemitah is that the 7th year is the year of resting and releasing. The biggest Wall Street crash of 1987 happened during Shemitah and so did the bond market carnage of 1994. It shall be a jubilee for you, and each of you shall return to his own property, and each of you shall return to his family. Cahn subsequently went on to publish a second book in 2014 that was exclusively related to the Shemitah Effect, entitled The Mystery of the Shemitah. BGC Partners, Inc. (Nasdaq: BGCP) ("BGC"), a leading global brokerage and financial technology company, today reported its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2022. 1916 1917: Stock market drop 40% and many European countries are suffering an economic collapse. Vi har ftt igjen pengene vre, takket vre klagehjelpen vi fikk!Evig takknemlige!!! All during this one Shmita year. For the non-Shmita years, the average return is 9.0% (16.5%), but for the Shmita years, it is an average loss of -2.4% (22.7). The stock market follows and amplifies the cycle. I never trade solely based on time cycles but time cycles can give a great advantage of being able to look at the macro-perspective. By Cecilia Butini. Introducing shmita, the Torah suggests that there is a seven year cycle of economic activity: Six years shall you sow your land and gather in your yield; but in the seventh year you shall let it rest and lie fallow. (Exodus 23) Then immediately it repeats the idea of Shabbat: Six days you shall do you work, but on the seventh day you shall cease from labor. Many economists and others who study the global financial systems have wondered why major downturns in the economy seem to happen in early fall, especially in the months of September and October. came crashing down to earth. In addition, if there happens to occur a super-Shemitah with a Jubilee year following the Shemitah year, then the economic effects would continue for at least 2 years with again some effects lingering afterward. This information couldve been doctored or misrepresented by the internet. hearts with the times and feast dates that have been set down by God. For instance, the Ten Commandments clearly have important application to all people throughout all time, not just to the Jews and the nation of Israel. This is what the Lord said through Moses in Deuteronomy: At the end of every seven years you shall grant a remission of debts. United States enters WWI. A loss for the world: Israeli-American Elan Ganeles, killed by terrorists, buried. Cahn has postulated that this principle is actually affecting the course of world events and especially the future of the United States and Israel as we move forward in the End Times. Ben Reppond(406) 871-3321ben@reppondinvestments.comLearn how we manage money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4IdPxtjBYo\u0026t=3220sInstagram: @benreppondBloomberg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hA3IkauON4CNBC Joe Kernanhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlmLyfx5tcECNBC Scott Wapnerhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb1cGFjXXtYJonathan CahnThe Mystery of the Shemitahhttps://www.amazon.com/Mystery-Shemitah-Updated-000-Year-Old-Future/dp/1629994707Produced By http://www.thepyrostudios.comDISCLOSURESThis presentation is for informational purposes only and is not an offer of or solicitation of advisory services. For instance, in the following figure, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stretching from the year 1900 to the autumn of 2015 is mapped with the Shemitah years highlighted as transparent yellow bars on top of the curve. 1 Tech Stock Leading the Market Recovery. United States enters WWI. However, the historical hit rates arent high enough to justify running for cover if you have no other fundamental stock-market worries. Shemitah, the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, has several times in the past brought immense financial hardships to the world. name for ourselves" Genesis 11:4. You shall have the fiftieth year as a jubilee; you shall not sow, nor reap its aftergrowth, nor gather in from its untrimmed vines. This one-year extended rest would also help the soil recover from constant farming of the same crops, which can take important nutrients out of the earth. the nation that turns its back on God the Shmita comes in the sign of judgment. 150 South Fifth Street, Suite 1700Minneapolis, MN 55402, 2023 Time Cycles: Two Outta Three Aint Bad. Shmita years are behind the rise and fall of America. Is the Shemitah Effect real or is it imagined? Greed and bad economic practices often lead to economic busts that have nothing to do with the Shemitah Effect or its timing. "Who say in pride and arrogance of heart: The bricks have fallen down, but we will rebuild with Six years you shall sow your field, and six years you shall prune your vineyard and gather in its crop. (You can check the numbers and dates here, here and here.) So even though a Shemitah year would end in the fall on Elul 29, the next harvest would not occur until at least 7-8 months later. Perhaps 2022, the next Shmita year, will have some upheavals. This served to reinforce their reliance on God and decrease their reliance on their own initiative, which is exactly what the Lord wanted to happen. So what makes this Shemitah cycle so interesting? The beginning of American to rise to world power. Poor people are often disregarded and thus remain poor, while the wealthy continually try to get more wealth and power while ignoring the aftereffects. Is it possible that the Bible provides the reason for this phenomenon as well as details on its origin and properties? In some cases, the rate increased during the Shemitah, while in other cases the increase occurred after the Shemitah year was over (in its wake). A Dashboard Update. Add to the fact that this pandemic is not going out quietly, we will eventually find out that stock markets do not like uncertainty. Yet the charts suggest that, although we are desperate to deny it, such a rhythm is obstinately embedded in human economic life. Let's take a look at the incredibly accurate timing of the Shmita Year as it impacts modern history in the realm of finances, economies, and empires: 1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Eight months later, the S&P 500 loss through August has exceeded 10% for only the twelfth time since 1926. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable. In addition, Zenz also considered a more restricted analysis by using only the 2-month Elul-Tishri Shemitah ending months and the Shemitah wake period in his calculations, just like Cahn focused on in his book. Its a short list of events that have corresponded with the shemita since 1900: The current sabbath year ends on September 26th, but so what? Looks like things are right on target. The Shmita These types of intense boom-and-bust periods characterize the economies of todays world, and they appear to be unpredictable and unpreventable. Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. The Shmita year starts every 7th year on Elul 29 on the Biblical Calendar on the Feast of Trumpets. So what are we to conclude? 9/11 and Global recession. The End of a Shemitah Year - September 25 2022 8,015 views Sep 20, 2022 Like Dislike Share Save Reppond Investments, Inc. 10.3K subscribers Feel free to contact me if you have questions or. Economic theory and policy struggle to understand and effectively address the business cycle. According to the statutes of this law, the 50th year would include another year like the Shemitah year of not planting or harvesting of crops; therefore the seventh Shemitah year of rest for the land was followed by another Jubilee year of rest, making two consecutive years of no planting and no harvesting every 49 years. You can act to change and control your life; and the procedure, the process is its own reward.- towers fell. This time, everyone says, it will different. and lie still. Let me show you. A more in depth analysis would conclude that breathing has nothing to do with eventual death, even if everyone who breaths does eventually die. Same same and no big change. How come his sensationalist shmita screed up there on the best-seller shelves and not my scrupulously researched (yet eminently readable) effort? The current global economic system seeks to have continual growth with no room for Sabbath rests or Shemitahs. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and bankrupting Orange County. After dropping 33% in 2022, the Nasdaq Composite Index got off to a strong start in 2023, rising 17% between the start of the year and Feb. 2. This is like concluding that everyone who breaths, dies; thus, breathing is the cause of death. Mike Maloney is a smart guy, but hes just a man with a view just take a look on his favourite crypto, Hedera Hashgraph (episode 8). The greater the number of years left before the next Jubilee, the greater would be the value of the land and therefore the price. With the most speculative year in U.S. stock market history drawing to a close, we could probably all use a rest. Lets look at this effect in more detail by considering more extensive data sets. Its a year ending in 2 and a Shmita year on the Jewish calendar, both of which have been associated with far below average stock market returns. Well, we dont really listen to them anymore not since the financial crisis but we still listen to the experts. There can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investment strategies devised or undertaken by Reppond Investments, Inc.) will be profitable for a clients or prospective clients portfolio. Life savings and pensions were decimated, homes were lost while homelessness, poverty and misery grew. Therefore, the poor would never be poor forever and the rich would not continually devour the property of the poor. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. By AARON KATSMAN Published:. The last time we have seen a Shemitah year was in the year 2014-2015. Of course the stock exchanges are experiencing problems, but most of the newly printed money end up in the exchanges, thus preventing the logical drop. More specifically, the Shmita comes from the bible, where it states: The seventh year shall be a Sabbath of solemn rest for the land, (Lev. Rigel senior . This law ensured that Hebrew slaves would not be held as slaves forever, regardless of the debt they owed or the situation they found themselves in. Your email address will not be published. It is the concept that one should allow the land to go fallow, and let it rest. Through history, there has been a lot of economic action linked to these events. The enormity of the preceding mania and its vicious unwind have us believing the current bear could unfold over a much lengthier time than is typical. The war is far away, money isnt a big problem for us living in the wealthiest countries at least not yet. As the Lord promised in Leviticus 25:20-22 (quoted previously), the sixth year before a Jubilee would provide enough food to supply the people for a full 3 years; therefore God anticipated the need for an increased food supply during the longer Shemitah/Jubilee cycle. Because it aligns as well with the fact that September is known to be the worst month for stocks. Theres been a major financial disruption in seven of the eight Shmita years dating back to 1966: Our institutional research publication Perception for the Professional is sought after by the top institutional managers in the industry. He described within it, as part of a series of harbingers to judgment affecting the United States and the world, a concept related to an old Jewish law often called the Shemitah (The Harbinger, p. 153). 1-ranked portfolio strategist on Wall Street last year.As many analysts remained bullish on the market exiting 2021, Wilson . SHEMITAH CYCLE AMTV 684K subscribers Subscribe 1.2K 17K views 1 year ago #AMTV. It may be too late to soften the impact of the next crash, but lets have smarter economic minds start thinking now whether we can use this insight to make our economies more sustainable and resilient for the future. The prideful building of the Tower of Babel brought judgment. This type of downward pressure on the global financial system may also cause the rise and fall of empires and countries, as economic upheavals often cause major political power shifts.
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