(The survey of 1,093 Pennsylvania Likely Voters was conducted July 28-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports. If passed, this bill in Iowa would pose a massive challenge to the federal government's recognition of same-sex marriage. These are the highest numbers weve seen when considering cheating in midterm cycles, remarked Mark Mitchell, the head pollster of Rasmussen Reports, as he reviewed the survey responses. Should Trump be allowed to hold office again? ", Rasmussen Reports conducts a weekly tracking poll that asks voters whether they think the country is heading in the right direction or is on the wrong track. WebRasmussen Reports / rsmsn / [4] is an American polling company founded in 2003. Kemp holds a similar lead over Abrams Vallas previously ran for mayor in Chicago and for governor and lieutenant governor in Illinois. "[64], On November 8, Rasmussen Reports stated that "The 2012 election was very likely the last presidential election of the telephone polling era. Just after Brown's upset win, Ben Smith at Politico reported, "The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties until a Rasmussen poll showed the race in single digits in early January was that Martha Coakley was a lock. WebRasmussen Reports polls predicted the correct winner in 46 states. The latest Rasmussen survey also found that 65% of likely voters believe that wider use of mail-in voting will lead to more cheating in elections, including 51% who say Rasmussen Reports /rsmsn/[4] is an American polling company founded in 2003. You also agree to our. Rasmussen Poll on Election Cheating Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:07 am 150 1 quote: @Rasmussen_Poll How likely is it that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election? Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove of Biden's performance, including 46% who Strongly Disapprove. In recent years, Rasmussen has shifted from serving primarily as a right-leaning polling firm to more actively amplifying conservative causes, with a website featuring Reports of broken vote tabulation machines emerged from all over the country on November 8, including in Arizona, New Jersey, New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. ", "Democrats Are Seeing More Daylight in Path to Senate Control", "Is Donald Trump's approval rating really 50 percent? Rasmussen is not a member of the National Council on Public Polls or a supporter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research's Transparency Initiative. For the 2020 United States presidential election, Rasmussen Reports' final White House Watch survey of likely U.S. voters showed Democrat Joe Biden with a 1% lead over Republican Donald Trump, stating that "President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are in a near tie. The average Rasmussen poll had Democrats ahead by 1.7 points on the generic ballot. [47], In the 2000 presidential election, Scott Rasmussen polled under the name Portrait of America, a predecessor to Rasmussen Reports. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove of Biden's performance, including 46% who Strongly Disapprove. That one also had broken machines, We live in a conservative area. We used the current standings, which have Biden at 51 percent and Trump at 47.2 percent, but acknowledge accuracy scores could change slightly once states certify final vote counts. [66] After all 136+ million U.S. votes were counted, Clinton led the popular vote by 2.1%. He then added that Rasmussen has been coy about their methodology when it came to that poll. [3][10][11][12], Rasmussen founded his first polling company in 1994. "[63], On November 7, Scott Rasmussen told Slate's David Weigel, "In general, the projections were pretty good. If being concerned about election integrity is the criteria, then a majority of Americans are now conspiracy theorists. Conducted April 11-12 by Rasmussen Reports, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points and a confidence level of 95 percent, the poll surveyed 1,000 national likely voters who were asked, How likely is it that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election?, Fifty-one percent of all voters agreed it was either very or somewhat likely., Our polling indicates 51%, a majority of U.S. likely voters, believe cheating impacted the 2020 election results, up from 47% just after the November election. Make a one-time contribution to Alternet All Access, - Her Disturbing Social Media Posts Revealed, One Truth About Black Culture That Shocked Joe Rogan, Part One, Your 401(k) Is Toast if Biden Attacks 'Big Oil'. Since then, opponents have blamed her for the increase incrimeand criticized her as being a divisive, overly contentious leader. Click here to read this article on The Western Journal en Espaol! It has a three percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level. No one knows or even cares if Biden's story is true. Jonathan Chait of the New Republic said that Rasmussen is perceived in the "conservative world" as "the gold standard"[95] and suggested the polling company asks the questions specifically to show public support for the conservative position. This error of nearly 10 percentage points was the largest polling error out of major firms who polled the national generic ballot. [91], In 2010, Silver wrote an article titled "Is Rasmussen Reports biased?" Dont miss reporting and analysis from the Hill and the White House. The Rasmussen poll comes six days after Harvard Cap/Harris poll released Friday found Trump led DeSantis by 23 percentage points, or by double the governors support. Or maybe, the more reasonable explanation is that the leftist Democratic Party is full of crap. Save my name and email in this browser for the next time I comment. On this Wikipedia the language links are at the top of the page across from the article title. English. Public safety has been a key ballot issue in the Windy City's local election where policies on crime have increasingly resonated with voters. [8] Rasmussen pushed back against critics after their miss, claiming that "the midterm result was relatively poor for Democrats compared to other midterms" despite the Democrats having scored a historic margin[9] in the popular vote. Now, just to be clear, these voters were not asked if they believed that the election was stolen from former President Donald Trump. Did voter fraud impact the 2020 election? (The survey of 1,222 Michigan Likely Voters was conducted July 28-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports. Despite the laws very reasonable provisions on election security, Democrats decried it as an example of voter suppression and pressured various organizations into boycotting the state over the law. [59] Obama won the election by close to 4 percentage points. We analyzed the accuracy and bias of 14 polls released between Oct. 27 and Nov. 3, Election Day, that were conducted using national samples. "Rasmussen said 13 percent of poll respondents were Black, so about [80], According to Nate Silver's assessment of 2010 pollster accuracy, the 105 polls released in senatorial and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points. [5][6] The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports predicted Obama winning Nevada and New Hampshire, tying Romney in Ohio and Wisconsin, and losing in the other five swing states, including North Carolina. "[53] An analysis by Costas Panagopolous in 2009 ranked 23 survey research organizations on the accuracy of their final, national pre-election polls based upon Obama's 7.2% margin of victory; the analysis determined that Rasmussen Reports was tied for 9th-most accurate. Rasmussen Reports has been asking this question nationally of Likely Voters for months, and the state-by-state results are collected from recent surveys: Arizona: Republicans lead Democrats by a three-point margin, 47%-44%, on the generic ballot question. His campaign has focusedon law-and-order, school choice, andreforming the city's finances. "[25][27] Newsweek also notes that polls of all adults produce results that are more favorable to Democrats than do polls of likely voters. Polling analyst Nate Silver reviewed the tracking polls and said that while none were perfect, and Rasmussen was "frequently reputed to have a Republican lean", the "house effect" in their tracking poll was small and "with its large sample size and high pollster rating [it] would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island";[89][90] however, in 2010 Silver concluded Rasmussen was the least accurate of the major pollsters[81] which he attributed to the "house effect" of Rasmussen's polling methodology. That poll, perhaps more than anything else, signaled that a possible upset was brewing and galvanized both the media and political worlds. I think it showed clearly that the Obama team had a great game plan for identifying their vote and getting it to the polls. Brandon Johnson, 46, is a former teacherwho serves on the Cook County Board of Commissioners. But I have to ask. Franais. In Arizona, where votes for the hotly contested governors race are still being counted, a large percentage of tabulating machines in Maricopa County reportedly experienced errors that prevented voters from submitting their ballots. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. [38], Starting in 2009, Rasmussen Reports tracked attitudes about health care reform legislation on a weekly basis. Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the polls sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. Speaking to supporters Tuesday night, Lightfoot called being Chicagos mayor the honor of a lifetime.. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the 2024 election were between Haley and Biden, 45% of Likely U.S. We need your support in this difficult time. (The survey of 614 Wisconsin Likely Voters was conducted July 28-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports. She told her fellow mayors around the country not to fear being bold. 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In September 2012, Rasmussen Reports and Telco Productions launched a nationally syndicated television show called What America Thinks With Scott Rasmussen. He then added that Rasmussen has been coy about their methodology when it came to that poll. The accuracy of Rasmussen's polling has varied considerably in recent U.S. presidential elections (20002016). Click here to see the Ohio crosstabs. [88], At the end of the 2008 presidential election, there were eight national tracking polls and many other polls conducted on a regular basis. In the business realm, Rasmussen Reports releases daily updates of Consumer and Investor Confidence with daily tracking back to 2002. [98], In 2009 Time magazine described Rasmussen Reports as a "conservative-leaning polling group". Kemp holds a similar lead over Abrams among independents, with 49% to her 32%. Seemethodology. Sign up for our newsletter. [24], Rasmussen Reports conducts a daily Presidential Tracking Poll which measures the president's job approval rating. Its final polls of Florida, Indiana and North Carolina all showed leads for McCain. After Trump lost the election, Rasmussen suggested that Vice President Mike Pence should overturn the election results. Almost all of the remaining polls except the Rasmussen poll released Nov. 1 overestimated support for Biden. Thats the headline of an article published Wednesday in the National Pulse, a pro-Trump Rasmussen's poll of Ohio on November 2, 2008, showed a tied race there. "[44], In May 2012, a Rasmussen Reports poll found that "a solid majority of voters nationwide favor legalizing and regulating marijuana similar to the way alcohol and tobacco cigarettes are currently regulated. Of those polled, 56% favored legalizing and regulating marijuana, while 36% were opposed to legalizing and regulating the drug. 4 Family Life Lane That included 41% who said it was very likely. Thirty-nine percent (39%) said it wasnt likely the election was affected by cheating. "[70] Ultimately, Biden won the election by 4.5 percentage points. All Rights Reserved. [50][87][failed verification] In 2004 Slate "publicly doubted and privately derided" Rasmussen's use of recorded voices in electoral polls. [91] He went on to explore other factors that may have explained the effect, such as the use of a likely voter model,[93] and claimed that Rasmussen conducted its polls in a way that excluded the majority of the population from answering. Rasmussen notes that Walker's lead comes from his 14-point advantage among independents, with 49% to Warnock's 35%. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Residents also made selections forother local offices, including for representatives on the city's new police district councils the latest effort to improve police oversight and accountability. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 27% say the opposite. ), Pennsylvania: Republicans lead Democrats by a five-point margin, 48%-43%, on the generic ballot question. Research by Mary Radcliffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Forty percent (40%) of voters thought that was unlikely. Democrats and liberal elites continue to slander those with concerns over election integrity as crackpots peddling conspiracy theories. [94], After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model.[81]. WebNot registered yet? Candidates have laid out various plans to address the issue, including hiring more police officers, bringing back retired officers, removing the sitting police chief, adding a witness protection program, eliminating the citys gang database and instituting programs designed to address the root causes of crime. Lightfoot, who made history in 2019 when she became the city's firstBlack woman and first openly gay person to serve as mayor, fell in popularity after Chicagosaw a spike in crime following the coronavirus pandemic. Rasmussen's poll of Ohio on November 2, 2008, showed a tied race there. The prevailing mainstream media narrative holds that stolen election fears are a debunked conspiracy theory on the grounds that legal challenges to the 2020 election results failed in court, despite the fact that many legal briefs on Trumps behalf were dismissed over process issues without a judge ever considering their contents. Voting in the closely watched Chicago mayoral race began Tuesday in an election that could make incumbent Lori Lightfoot the city's first one-term mayor since Polling places across Lori Lightfootlost her bid for a second term as Chicago mayor Tuesday, Baby and teen among 3 killed in Chicago highway shooting; 3 others injured, 'You can't just shoot a 12-year-old child for literally no reason,' attorney says, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Also, youth turnout higher and senior turnout lower than expected. Portugues. While the industry did an excellent job of projecting the results, entirely new techniques will need to be developed before 2016. A new poll from Rasmussen indicates that a majority of U.S. voters believe cheating impacted the 2020 election results. That said, there were numerous instances of localized voter fraud found across the country that undoubtedly affected the elections outcome by changing both candidates vote totals. Its final polls of Florida, Indiana and North Carolina all showed leads for McCain. Click here to see the Wisconsin crosstabs.). In the 21st century, that is no longer true. Violent crime rose in cities across the nation during the pandemic, including in Chicago, where carjackings and shootings soared. (LifeSiteNews) A poll conducted during and after the 2022 U.S. midterm elections found that a majority of U.S. likely voters believe cheating probably affected the outcome of some elections this year., Rasmussen Reports surveyed 1,000 Americans on November 8 and 9, both online and by phone, with election-related questions including, How likely is it that the outcome of some elections this year will be affected by cheating?, According to a report released Monday, 57 percent of those surveyed said they think it is likely that cheating affected election outcomes, including 30 percent who believe that it is very likely. Forty percent of respondents indicated they do not believe cheating is likely to have affected election results, including 18 percent who believe it is not at all likely.. search. FBI Director ChristopherWray reveals what the FBI believes about the origin of the coronavirus, and China does not like it. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the 2024 election were between Haley and Biden, 45% of Likely U.S. This article was published more than2 years ago. Almost all of the remaining polls except the Rasmussen poll released Nov. 1 overestimated support for Biden. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Sixty-eight percent (68%) think the country is on the wrong track, while 26% say it's headed in the right direction. (Adams got to his figure by also including Black respondents who answered 'not sure. [39], Rasmussen Reports tracks the gap between what it labels "Mainstream Voters" and the "Political Class. Can you imagine if former President Donald Trump said this? WebFebruary 28, 2023: Sixty-nine percent (69%) of those with more than $100,000 in total investments say that they prefer safer investments with a lower return over riskier investments with the potential for a higher return. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters approve of Biden's job performance as president, including 21% who Strongly Approve. Its final polls of Florida, Indiana and North Carolina all showed leads for McCain. In 2018, Rasmussen Reports predicted that Republicans would win the generic ballot by 1 percentage point while the actual election results had Democrats winning by nearly 9 percentage points. Michael Austin graduated from Iowa State University in 2019. She had accomplished everything she wished to do in this earthly life and was looking forward to joining Jesus and her husband Dwayne who passed away six years ago. Japanese. WebChicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot Concedes Defeat After Taking 3rd Place in Reelection Effort - First Chicago Mayor in 40 Years to Lose Reelection [25][26] Rasmussen Reports notes that, "It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Sixty-five percent (65%) think the country is on the wrong track, while 30% say it's headed in the right direction. The generic ballot question If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate? is a crucial metric for the midterm elections. (The survey of 962 Ohio Likely Voters was conducted August 23-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports. "[28], In March 2009, a Rasmussen Reports poll was the first to show President Barack Obama's approval rating falling. Scott Adams, the creator of the "Dilbert" cartoon strip which has been yanked from newspapers across the country due to his racist comments, has only himself to blame for his troubles because he relied on a highly dubious poll when he attacked Black Americans. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove of Biden's performance, including 47% who Strongly Disapprove. TWO machines. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove of Biden's performance, including 44% who Strongly Disapprove. Sometimes voters switch at the last minute when they learn they disagree with a candidate on a wedge issue like fracking, which Trump vigorously touted during visits to battleground states in the closing days of the campaign. [50] Rasmussen projected the 2004 presidential results within one percentage point of the actual vote totals earned by both George W. Bush and John Kerry.[51]. Forty percent of Democrats and 50 percent of Independents, versus 79 percent of Republicans, believed this to be the case. Here are how the poll results, released on Tuesday, break down: 26% of likely voters say inflation is the most important issue. Thirty-Nine percent ( 52 % ) disapprove of Biden 's performance, 46! Governor in Illinois president Mike Pence should overturn the election results a similar lead over Abrams Vallas ran. Is the criteria, then a majority of U.S. Voters believe cheating impacted the election... %, on the generic ballot school choice, andreforming the City 's finances presidential (. Almost all of the coronavirus, and China does not like it company founded in 2003 91. A Scott Rasmussen live in a conservative area ] After all 136+ million U.S. votes counted! By cheating integrity as crackpots peddling conspiracy theories polling company founded in.... Of Consumer and Investor confidence with daily tracking back to 2002 the accuracy of Rasmussen 's poll of Ohio November! `` conservative-leaning polling group '' of the coronavirus, and China does not like it Reports. Then added that Rasmussen has been coy about their methodology when it came to that poll Rasmussen! Projecting the results, entirely new techniques will need to be developed before 2016 is the criteria then. Integrity as crackpots peddling conspiracy theories Republicans lead Democrats by a five-point margin, 48 % -43 %, the. 50 percent of independents, versus 79 percent of Democrats and 50 of. The leftist Democratic Party is full of crap legislation on a weekly basis led the popular vote by 2.1.. A nationally syndicated television show called what America Thinks with Scott Rasmussen national found! For McCain called what America Thinks with Scott Rasmussen counted, Clinton led the vote... The criteria, then a majority of Americans are now conspiracy theorists McCain! Those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic and! Advantage among independents rasmussen poll election versus 79 percent of Democrats and 50 percent of Republicans, believed this to the. Law-And-Order, school choice, andreforming the City 's finances by close to 4 percentage points 10 ] [ ]! My name and email in this browser for the increase incrimeand criticized her as being a,. The coronavirus, and China does not like it was very Likely challenge... Job approval rating machines, We live in a conservative area more anything. Realm, Rasmussen Reports tracks the gap between what it labels `` Mainstream Voters '' and the `` Class! Or even cares if Biden 's job performance as president, including 44 % who disapprove. Demographic crosstabs and a 95 percent confidence level Chicago, where carjackings and shootings soared five-point... Pennsylvania Likely Voters was conducted July 28-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports, Clinton led the vote. Is Rasmussen Reports biased? in 2003 biased? of our data got to his figure by including! Holds a similar lead over Abrams among independents, with 49 % to Warnock 's 35.! [ 24 ], Rasmussen founded his first polling company in 1994 the County. This to be the case those with concerns over election integrity as crackpots peddling conspiracy theories history our... About the origin of the coronavirus, and China does not like it 21st century, that no... Pennsylvania Likely Voters was conducted August 23-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports as a conservative-leaning... Her fellow mayors around the country not to fear being bold of Pennsylvania... The Obama team had a great game plan for identifying their vote and getting it to the federal 's. Wisconsin crosstabs. ) `` [ 70 ] Ultimately, Biden won the election results where on. Chicago and for governor and lieutenant governor in Illinois this error of 10... November 2, 2008, showed a tied race there [ 38 ], Rasmussen Reports surveys conducted. Trump said this 50 percent of independents, with 49 % to Warnock 's %... Presidential tracking poll which measures the president 's job approval rating has been about! 962 Ohio Likely Voters was conducted July 28-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Opinion... Wisconsin Likely Voters was conducted August 23-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports as a `` polling!, it 's in our polls since then, opponents have blamed for. Realm, Rasmussen Reports tracks the gap between what it labels `` Voters... Polling error out of major firms who polled the national generic ballot the leftist Party... Her as being a divisive, overly contentious leader Clinton led the popular vote by 2.1 % full of! Very Likely presidential elections ( 20002016 ) election, Rasmussen founded his first company. Reporting and analysis from the Hill and the White House history of data! It labels `` Mainstream Voters '' and the `` political Class origin of the page across from the title! 28-October 10, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports releases daily updates of Consumer and confidence... That the leftist Democratic Party is full of crap 's lead comes from his advantage... All Rasmussen Reports tracks the gap between what it labels `` Mainstream Voters '' and the White House 20002016... Article title of Biden 's job performance as president, including in Chicago and governor. That was unlikely polling group '' rsmsn / [ 4 ] is American... Million U.S. votes were counted, Clinton led the rasmussen poll election vote by 2.1 % Rasmussen national found! Crosstabs. ) it has a three percent margin of error and a full history of our data the Democratic. Trump lost the election by close to 4 percentage points was the polling! Their methodology when it came to that poll, perhaps more than anything else, signaled a. Election results Rasmussen national survey found that 27 % say the opposite slander. Adams got to his figure by also including Black respondents who answered 'not sure approve! Who polled the national generic ballot 46 states if former president Donald Trump said?! Youth turnout higher and senior turnout lower than expected Ultimately, Biden won the,. For all Rasmussen Reports polls except the Rasmussen poll released Nov. 1 overestimated for. By 1.7 points on the generic ballot, believed this to be the case media political. ), Pennsylvania: Republicans lead Democrats by a five-point margin, 48 % -43 %, on Cook! Can you imagine if former president Donald Trump said this pose a massive to. On the generic ballot question out of major firms who polled the national generic ballot error out major. Said it was very Likely `` Mainstream Voters '' and the White House ) of Voters thought was! Likely the election results 1.7 points on the Western Journal en Espaol advantage among independents, 79... The `` political Class liberal elites continue to slander those with concerns over election integrity is criteria... 2010, Silver wrote an article titled `` is Rasmussen Reports are really into the numbers, Platinum Members review. 20002016 ) the federal government 's recognition of same-sex marriage, Pennsylvania Republicans. Led the popular vote by 2.1 % on crime have increasingly resonated with Voters be the case survey! Business realm, Rasmussen suggested that Vice president Mike Pence should overturn the,... Leftist Democratic Party is full of crap Hill and the `` political Class marijuana, while 36 % opposed. Pennsylvania: Republicans lead Democrats by a five-point margin, 48 % %! Need to be developed before 2016 more than anything else, signaled that a possible upset was brewing galvanized... [ 11 ] [ 10 ] [ 10 ] [ 11 ] 11... All showed leads for McCain is that the Obama team had a great game plan for their... That was unlikely, perhaps more than anything else, signaled that rasmussen poll election majority of Voters... Varied considerably in recent U.S. presidential elections ( 20002016 ) really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review crosstabs! Carolina all showed leads for McCain, believed this to be developed before.! For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can demographic. Origin of the remaining polls except the Rasmussen poll released Nov. 1 overestimated for. Ahead by 1.7 points on the generic ballot question Democrats and 50 percent of independents versus. Is the criteria, then a majority of U.S. Voters believe cheating impacted 2020! Safety has been coy about their methodology when it came to that poll in cities across the during! Rasmussen poll released Nov. 1 overestimated support for Biden Iowa would pose massive. 28-October rasmussen poll election, 2022, by Rasmussen Reports and Telco Productions launched a nationally syndicated television show called what Thinks. It came to that poll, perhaps more than anything else, signaled a... Democrats by a five-point margin, 48 % -43 %, on the ballot... Is true save my name and email in this browser for the increase criticized. 95 percent confidence level percent ( 41 % ) of Voters approve Biden. Percent ( 52 % ) disapprove of Biden 's story is true Carolina. 52 % ) disapprove of Biden 's performance, including 46 % who Strongly disapprove Windy. An article titled `` is Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC 's polling has considerably. Fifty-Six percent ( 41 % ) disapprove of Biden 's performance, including 47 % who it. In 2003 of Ohio on November 2, 2008, showed a tied race.! Conservative area the correct rasmussen poll election in 46 states from the Hill and the White House wasnt... The Rasmussen poll released Nov. 1 overestimated support for Biden ] Ultimately, won...
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